Reflections on the flash crash (Oct 10 2025)
-As a trader/personal growth
Intuition, gut feel, and experience are your strongest assets. I KNEW that 121K needed to hold or this market was cooked. I wrote it in the quote tweet below 12 hours before the crash occurred.
"BTC has no business giving obvious retests such as 117-115K and it has no business back at 110K, IT WILL CRASH THROUGH IF SO. 121K is the KEY level to rally from. Here and now or it’s a wrap."
Reading that, you'd think I made a killing off the flash crash. I shorted once 121K broke and TP'd / longed near 100K because I knew 117-115K wouldn't hold and we'd crash through 110K. But you'd be wrong. While I suffered basically no losses (outside of a typical stop out, long 121k, SL 118K), I did not capitalize on my thesis that the implications of holding 121K were so extreme (as I stated in multiple tweets and in replies to other influencers). I literally said (before the crash), that yesterday was the most important price action of 2025. A ton of talk, but not a ton of action.
The lesson here is to act and execute RELENTLESSLY based off strong beliefs and that no price is too far away. Preparation is key and limit orders are an amazing thing. There's a story from Dante about when he really believed in a trade and told Navinder, Nav leaned over and said "do you really like that trade?" And Dante said "yes, it's a really great trade, I really fucking believe in it". Nav leaned over and sent him full clip into the market and said "if you REALLY like it, you need to trade a size like you really like it". Now.. this isn't saying to max lev up every time you believe in a trade. In fact, I'd advise against it. But if we can take one thing from this conversation between two professional traders, it would be that if you really believe in a trade.. if you feel it in your guts.. if you KNOW how extreme the implications are of a level holding or not is.. THEN FUCKING TRADE LIKE IT. It's a financial tragedy (to me), that I did not capitalize with how clearly I understood price.
The second 121K failed, I should have shorted, set TP's to sub 105K, and set limit buys sub 105K, because that was my STRONG BELIEF about what was going to happen when 121K broke. And I legit said the words clearly in the quote tweet, I said we'd crash through 110K. SO WHY DIDN'T I TRADE LIKE IT? So much confidence about what price would do, yet so little action. To be fair, I didn't expect it to occur the same day, and that was a miscalculation on my behalf. We haven't seen true flash crashes in like years and I was not prepared. If I woke up today and saw BTC still hovering between 110-117K, I likely would have set limit bids to sub 105K.
Alas, I NEED to trust myself more. FUCK what everyone else says. I apologize to you guys, my community, for not having a more concrete psyche and steel trap mind when we needed it most. I received DM's from some of you saying you closed out lev / stabled up after losing 121K, I'm glad I could help some of you, but I wish I was more clear with execution, for ALL of you and for myself. I will do better. I'm going to take some steps soon to reduce the noise around me and really lock in because I know I'm one of the best market readers in the game, but the execution just isn't fully there yet.
-As a community/space
As ruthless as this may sound, I welcome the flush, and I hope we flush further. CT has become a laughing stock compared to what it once was. People purposely fake PnL (to where they don't care that experienced individuals will call them out) while they gather follows and paint a picture to noobs that ultimately lead to their demise on days like today. Every trencher is making 400K per day, everyone is a millionaire off airdrops, no one ever gets stopped out, large influencers literally deleted tweets of their 115-117k bids since yesterday (yes I went back and looked to see their stop outs, tweets deleted). EVERYONE is doing well and no one is losing, except you (and the very few transparent influencers that remain). That's the picture today's CT presents. A place that was once for sharing trading ideas and supporting each other has turned into constant fake posts, scamming, and insane amounts of noise. You can't short without getting bullied off the platform and you can barely even long. Every position is met with extreme resistance and know it all reply guys, hence the need to reduce noise. Is not reading comments really the only method? I remember Joe Rogan once said he doesn't read comments because most people are just outright wrong and it'd be impossible to correct everyone even if you tried. Maybe when it comes to trading posts, I'll mostly stay off the comments. I am hoping this flush cleansed the space a little, but reality is I doubt it. The urge to gamble is simply too strong and everyone and more will find their way back.
-On price action
It was a decently nasty move for sure. Bulls want 108K to hold now, with that wick simply being an anomaly. ETH tagged 3.4K again, a nice Daily level on the chart. I wonder if Tom Lee's quant saw it coming (his trade invalidated btw, price never tagged 5.1k before crashing way past 4k). Just wanted to put that out there since it was such a spectacle at the time and I got shit on relentlessly for not following the herd. Hopefully yall TP'd before his quant's target. Back to PA.. there's certainly levels to watch for reclaims and I'll talk more actual trading in time, but the thought I want to entertain for now is why crypto? If you're expecting Trump to back off the tariff talk and for markets to keep pumping, why choose crypto as your asset of choice? SPX, Gold, NVDA will all certainly rally to new all time highs, provide nice and clean price action, while BTC chops for weeks at a time, maybe gives a +6% day once every couple weeks, and full retraces any move that looks genuinely strong (that's the meta since August). I just truly don't see a reason why anyone would choose swing longing crypto over stocks or gold, UNLESS this was the event that will cause crypto to lead. If that's your belief, then power to you, although I don't personally see that at the moment. Additionally, it's a shame how much power single individuals and entities have over crypto price action. It's terrible. Back to Tom Lee above when he put the bottom in on ETH by blasting billions (with the support of a naive community) at 4K. We can now see where the real demand was, and it wasn't at his "quants" level. Also the HL insider who made $200m today off this move constantly shorting and holding down price for days. And yes, I understand these things happen in stocks as well, but stocks have simply been trading cleaner with goal oriented price action (taking liquidity -> making new ATH's, etc). Overall, I see more corruption in crypto, less clean price action, and the exchanges all fucking suck and crash anytime a good opportunity comes. I simply don't see the benefit in trading crypto over stocks right now.
-On life
I lost my grandfather (basically my dad) a bit over two weeks ago. There's a pain with me that losing money can't compare to. No matter how much you lost, remember that you have life. And remember you can make it back. If you did it once, you can do it again. If you have health, if you have family, you have everything you need. Those two things give you everything you need to be successful once again.
Learn from this crash. Allow this very tough experience to shape you into a stronger and more brilliant version of yourself. Pressure makes diamonds as they say. Don't let the experience go to waste. Cherish your family and your life and get back on the fucking horse. We got work to do.
Best wishes to all of you and let's all be better moving forward.
-Chase
I still very much believe this to be true. It’s here and now.. today and this weekend is some of the most important price action of 2025. $BTC has every reason to follow in the footsteps of SPX and Gold. We’ve consolidated for 3 months, it’s time. It’s either time or it’s cooked.
I am long, my last long for a bit if we breakdown. BTC has no business giving obvious retests such as 117-115K and it has no business back at 110K, it will crash through if so. 121K is the KEY level to rally from and breakout to new all time highs. If you’ve been a BTC trader for years, you know it’s aggressive before legging, no easy entries. Here and now or it’s a wrap.
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