Most people in crypto are ignorant. Take advantage of it. A perfect example is the recent news of a repo spike of 13.5 billion. Many in the crypto world confuse this spike with 'printer go brrrr' and think QT is now over. This is simply wrong. Don't trust anyone who says this, especially so-called industry experts like @KobeissiLetter or Bitcoin maxis under the spell of Austrian economics. QT is not over...yet. You need a crash to start QE, and this isn't one. What to track: Scenario 1: What we need to watch for is a corresponding SOFR spike and continual SRF pumps. This will confirm liquidity stress. If this happens, yes, QT may end, but there will be a crash before then. This same sort of thing happened in the 2019 repo crisis, the March COVID crash, and the March 2023 crash (no QE, but the introduction of the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) - this is why altcoins rallied thereafter). Scenario 1 seems more likely based on recent IMF and BIS reports warning the world of shadow banking fragility and the strong global desire for credit (in addition to a current global infrastructure-market slowdown). A true Minsky moment. Scenario 2: If, however, there is no SOFR spike and or further SRF pumps, nothing much happens; Bitcoin may drop 5-12 percent, but that's it. We will just have to wait for more rate cuts and for Trump to elect a new FED chair to enjoy a boom. If Scenario 1 happens, CT will confuse it with 'printer go brr,' and the crypto market will temporarily pump. Take advantage of this. However, this is fake hype; a mismatch between reality and belief - a true Soros moment of general reflexivity. After the hype, general markets and crypto will crash significantly (30-50 percent or more). THEN QT will end, and a boom may start. My point? Sell the ignorant hype before the crash, buy the crash, and enjoy the boom. If Scenario 2 happens, just hold.